France in 2050: Flex or Fail
By 2050, everything changes. Forecasts like “Futurs Énergétiques 2050” from RTE (the French TSO) describe a radically transformed electricity system: dominated by renewables and with electric vehicles accounting for nearly 25% of total demand. France’s electricity system will no longer be defined by central control or big spinning machines.
Instead, it will be shaped by renewables. EVs will make up nearly a quarter of total demand. Wind and solar will dominate electricity generation. Nuclear will shrink, and fossil fuels will be completely gone. This sounds green – and it is.
But it also introduces major risks. Without turbines, the grid loses its built-in inertia. Wind and solar can’t stabilize the system the way big machines once did. That means we need four times more safeguard flexibility – fast, reactive systems that can react to unforeseen events and prevent blackouts. And since solar and wind follow the weather, not human needs, we’ll need six times more strategic flexibility, to shift supply and demand across hours, days, and even seasons. Nuclear is no longer dominant. Hydro can’t scale further. The old stabilizers are gone. Even standalone batteries and new time-of-use tariffs help only so much.
Without new solutions, the 2050 grid may be green but unstable.