Q: From your long career shaping power systems and electricity markets in Europe, what shifts do you think will define the next decade of flexibility and grid modernization the most?
First, it’s important to look at the big picture. Electrification is one of the strongest global trends, and we are still only at the beginning.
Today, electricity accounts for around 20% of total energy use, but this is expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching 50 to 70%. This shift is driven by three main forces:
- Decarbonization
- Efficiency
- Energy independence
However, the pace of electrification varies widely. China is moving much faster, with electrification increasing by around 1.5% per year and already exceeding 30%. In contrast, Europe and the US are growing at less than 0.5% annually and remain just above 20%. To meet our goals across all three drivers, electrification needs to accelerate especially in Europe.
At the same time, the structure of the power system is changing. On the supply side, renewable energy will dominate new capacity additions, leading to a more variable production profile. On the demand side, electrification is expanding rapidly, particularly in transport.
One of the most important shifts will be in heavy transport. Electric trucks are likely to scale faster than passenger EVs due to stronger economics and faster fleet turnover. We already see this clearly in China, where adoption is accelerating rapidly.
The grid has been identified as a potential bottleneck in this transition. As highlighted in the EU’s recent “Grid Package,” simply expanding infrastructure will not be enough.